David Phillips artice: "Macedonia on the Brink"

 I recently met Professor David Phillips here in Skopje, at a conference at SEEU.  (See this blog post about Violent Extremism conference at SEEU)

 Here is Professor Phillip's analysis of the current situation in Maccedonia:  "Macedonia on the Brink." a contribution to the Huffington Post
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/macedonia-on-the-brink_us_58d91f06e4b0f633072b39d0
 

Macedonia on the Brink

03/27/2017 10:59 am ET | Updated Mar 27, 2017

 

Demonstrations brought Macedonia to the brink when wiretaps of Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski surfaced in 2015. The wiretaps revealed plots against political opponents and sordid details about corruption.

The European Union (EU) responded to the crisis, mediating the Przino agreement. The agreement required participation of the opposition party, the Social Democratic Union of Macedonia (SDSM) led by Zoran Zaev, in ministries of the government. The agreement also required Gruevski to step down and for a caretaker government to organize general elections.

The election scheduled for April 24 was postponed to June 5, and then postponed again to December 11.

Accountability was also a lightning rod. The Przino agreement called for a special prosecutor to investigate the wiretapping scandal. However, President Gjeorge Ivanov issued pardons to figures in both parties effectively undermining the special prosecutor. Popular demonstrations and counter-demonstrations ensued.

Elections were finally held in December 2016; Gruevski’s party won 51 of 120 seats in parliament. Since he did not gain an absolute majority, the balance of power rests with parties representing ethnic Albanians, who constitute at least 25 percent of Macedonia’s population.

Albanian parties came together and adopted a common platform. Zaev agreed to expand constitutional rights of Macedonia’s ethnic Albanians in exchange for their support.

SDSM assembled a parliamentary majority, which should have been enough to form a government. However, Ivanov refused to award a mandate to SDSM claiming that the consensus among Albanian parties was a foreign construct, negotiated under the auspices of Albania’s Prime Minister. Albanians refuted this claim, criticizing Ivanov. Zaev also accused Ivanov of deliberately stalling the political process, helping Gruevski cling to power.

Macedonia’s crisis is acute. The longer it takes to resolve the impasse, the greater the risk of political violence between supporters of Gruevski and Zaev.

Macedonia is also undermined by external powers. When the United States and the EU criticized the government, Russia labeled the SDSM a tool of the West. Russia is pursuing insidious goals to discredit Western influence.

Macedonia needs a conflict resolution plan, which can stabilize the country and mitigate the prospect of political violence.